Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
